by Kevin Muller
Oscars 2026 Predictions
Best Picture
- Bugonia
- F1
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- The Secret Agent
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
- Train Dreams
Who Will Win / My Pick: One Battle After Another
My Take:
While I’m confident in my pick, Sinners could absolutely take the prize. With 16 nominations, it may feel like the natural choice to crown the film everyone is talking about.
It’s great to see Bugonia nominated, but it may simply be too weird to win. Meanwhile, Guillermo del Toro’s passion project Frankenstein already feels like a victory just for landing the nomination. The controversy surrounding Marty Supreme director Josh Safdie has likely hurt its chances of pulling off an upset.
Personally, I think No Other Choice should have been nominated instead of The Secret Agent as the second international film. It’s nice to see Train Dreams here as well, though it probably isn’t in the same league when it comes to winning Best Picture. F1 was thrilling and crowd-pleasing, but it still sits lower on the totem pole.
The two films most capable of upsetting the frontrunners are Sentimental Value and Hamnet. The latter, which deals with the devastating loss of a family member and features an incredible performance by Jessie Buckley, could be the dark horse.
In the end, though, this feels like Paul Thomas Anderson’s year. After a remarkable 30-year career, the Academy may finally honor his work. Beyond that, One Battle After Another is simply a fantastic film—fast-paced, funny, and masterfully crafted.
Best Director
- Chloe Zhao — Hamnet
- Josh Safdie — Marty Supreme
- Paul Thomas Anderson — One Battle After Another
- Joachim Trier — Sentimental Value
- Ryan Coogler — Sinners
Who Will Win / My Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson
My Take:
After more than three decades of filmmaking, Paul Thomas Anderson is finally poised to win the award many feel he should have received long ago.
Josh Safdie is currently dealing with controversy that has surfaced at an unfortunate time during awards season. Joachim Trier’s work in Sentimental Value is immaculate, but he’s still relatively new to the Academy spotlight. Chloe Zhao already won in 2021 and her latest film may not be strong enough to secure a second victory.
Ryan Coogler could pull off an upset, but like Trier, he still feels like a rising force rather than a legacy pick—though his future with the Academy looks extremely bright.
As for Anderson, he was given $150 million to adapt Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, a novel as wild and chaotic as the film itself. Despite the madness, the heart of the story—a father and daughter relationship—shines through thanks to Anderson’s direction and script. It’s a film that stays with you regardless of political perspective, and its quirky charm never fades across its nearly three-hour runtime.
Congratulations, PTA.
Best Actor
- Timothée Chalamet — Marty Supreme
- Leonardo DiCaprio — One Battle After Another
- Ethan Hawke — Blue Moon
- Michael B. Jordan — Sinners
- Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent
My Pick: Ethan Hawke
Who Will Win: Michael B. Jordan
My Take:
This is a stacked category full of worthy performances. Wagner Moura’s nomination alone feels like a victory, and hopefully it leads to even more roles for him.
Leonardo DiCaprio delivers a better performance in One Battle After Another than the one that earned him an Oscar for The Revenant. He’s hilarious but also deeply emotional as a father risking everything to rescue his daughter.
Timothée Chalamet perfectly captures the manic energy of Marty Supreme, but the Academy may feel it’s too soon to reward him.
Ethan Hawke, meanwhile, has quietly built one of the most impressive acting careers of the past few decades. His portrayal of lyricist Lorenz Hart is a dream role—emotionally complex and physically transformative.
Still, Michael B. Jordan seems poised to win. After taking the SAG Award and delivering two standout performances in Sinners, momentum appears to be on his side.
Best Actress
- Jessie Buckley — Hamnet
- Rose Byrne — If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You
- Kate Hudson — Song Sung Blue
- Renate Reinsve — Sentimental Value
- Emma Stone — Bugonia
Who Will Win / My Pick: Jessie Buckley
My Take:
Kate Hudson’s nomination is a bit surprising given the competition this year. She’s good, but several other performances outside this category arguably deserved the spot more.
Emma Stone is strong in Bugonia, but this nomination mostly reinforces her reputation as one of the most reliable actresses in Hollywood.
Renate Reinsve delivers an excellent performance as the conflicted daughter in Sentimental Value. However, this race really comes down to Rose Byrne and Jessie Buckley.
Byrne is phenomenal, grounding the chaos around her with emotional intensity. But Buckley’s performance is devastating. She portrays a mother reliving an unimaginable tragedy, capturing pain, anger, and confusion in a way that lingers long after the film ends.
This feels like Buckley’s award to lose.
Best Supporting Actor
- Benicio Del Toro — One Battle After Another
- Jacob Elordi — Frankenstein
- Delroy Lindo — Sinners
- Sean Penn — One Battle After Another
- Stellan Skarsgård — Sentimental Value
My Pick / Who Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård
Sean Penn nearly had my vote thanks to his wildly entertaining performance in One Battle After Another. Delroy Lindo’s nomination is long overdue after being overlooked for Da 5 Bloods years ago.
Jacob Elordi is just getting started, and this nomination could launch him into a new level of his career.
But Stellan Skarsgård delivers the most quietly devastating performance of the group. His portrayal of a filmmaker haunted by childhood trauma is subtle yet unforgettable. It’s not flashy—but it lingers long after the film ends.
Best Supporting Actress
- Elle Fanning — Sentimental Value
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — Sentimental Value
- Amy Madigan — Weapons
- Wunmi Mosaku — Sinners
- Teyana Taylor — One Battle After Another
My Pick: Amy Madigan
Who Will Win: Teyana Taylor
Amy Madigan’s performance as Aunt Gladys in Weapons is one of the year’s most memorable supporting roles. Her unsettling presence turns the character into a modern horror icon.
Still, Teyana Taylor has strong momentum and may ultimately take the award.
Other Predictions
- K-Pop: Demon Hunters will likely win Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song after becoming a massive Netflix hit with families.
- Sinners may miss out on the biggest awards but could dominate the technical categories, including Sound, Production Design, Makeup, Costume Design, and Visual Effects.
- The International Feature Film race is very strong this year. Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident could win thanks to both its quality and the significance of his voice in the global film community.
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