By Kevin Muller
Hello! It’s Kevin here, and I’m excited to share my Oscar predictions with you. The 2025 Oscars air on March 2nd at 7 pm, and as always, it’s shaping up to be a thrilling night. This year, unlike most others, there isn’t a clear frontrunner for Best Picture. Will Demi Moore finally win her long-awaited Best Actress Oscar? Could Conclave dethrone the favorite, Anora? And how will Conan O’Brien fare as host? We’ll find out soon enough. Below, I’ve made predictions for the major categories, with a few comments on the lesser ones. I’d love to hear your thoughts—who do you think will take home the Oscar?
Best Picture
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Perez
- I’m Still Here
- Nickel Boys
- The Substance
My Pick: Conclave
Will Win: Anora
My Take:
This year, there are three strong contenders for Best Picture. Let’s quickly touch on the others. Dune: Part Two was a magnificent follow-up to the first film and will surely win technical awards, including in visual effects and sound. A Complete Unknown was a solid biopic, but it won’t win, even with standout performances (especially from Timothée Chalamet). Emilia Perez is caught up in controversy, making it unlikely to win. Nickel Boys is an important and beautifully filmed story, but its nomination is the win here. The Substance might be too divisive for the Academy to award, though its nomination is a well-deserved acknowledgment. I’m Still Here is a strong foreign film, but it’s not quite in the running for Best Picture. The Brutalist could potentially upset, as it’s everything the Academy loves, albeit with a micro-budget. But ultimately, the Academy seems likely to reward Anora, which has already won the Director’s Guild, Writer’s Guild, and Producer’s Guild awards. However, Conclave, which won Best Film at BAFTA and recently took Best Ensemble at the SAGs, has its own shot. It’s a film with incredible craftsmanship and undeniable artistry. I’m rooting for Conclave, but Anora is most likely to take home the trophy.
Best Director
- Sean Baker for Anora
- Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
- James Mangold for A Complete Unknown
- Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez
- Coralie Fargeat for The Substance
My Pick: Brady Corbet
Who Will Win: Sean Baker
My Take:
Fargeat’s nomination is a huge accomplishment for a body horror film like The Substance, but it’s unlikely to win. Audiard’s Emilia Perez didn’t generate enough buzz, and Mangold’s work on A Complete Unknown was solid but not groundbreaking. This leaves us with a race between Sean Baker and Brady Corbet. While Baker excels at crafting chaotic, tension-filled stories (Anora being one of the best of 2024), Corbet’s achievement with The Brutalist on a modest budget is extraordinary. While I think the Academy will go with Baker’s brilliance in Anora, I wouldn’t be surprised if Corbet is rewarded for his vision.
Best Actor
- Adrian Brody in The Brutalist
- Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown
- Colman Domingo in Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes in Conclave
- Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice
My Pick and Who Will Win: Adrian Brody
My Take:
Colman Domingo gives a commanding performance in Sing Sing, but it won’t be his year. Ralph Fiennes is impeccable in Conclave, bringing depth to the role of Cardinal Lawrence. Sebastian Stan’s portrayal of Trump in The Apprentice is nuanced and captivating, but the Oscar will likely go to Adrian Brody. Brody’s performance in The Brutalist is an absolute tour de force. He’s on screen for nearly the entire 3.5-hour runtime, delivering an emotionally rich portrayal that’s as captivating as it is exhausting.
Best Actress
- Cynthia Erivo in Wicked
- Karla Sofia Gascon in Emilia Perez
- Mikey Madison in Anora
- Demi Moore in The Substance
- Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here
My Pick: Demi Moore
Who Will Win: Mikey Madison
My Take:
Erivo’s time will come next year for the second half of Wicked. Gascon’s performance is overshadowed by a public controversy, leaving us with three contenders: Mikey Madison, Demi Moore, and Fernanda Torres. While Torres is a dark horse with an exceptional performance spanning years, it’s likely Mikey Madison will take home the Oscar for her role in Anora. She’s brilliant as a stripper in over her head, delivering both humor and emotional depth.
Best Supporting Actor
- Yura Borisov in Anora
- Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
- Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown
- Guy Pierce in The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice
My Pick: Jeremy Strong
Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin
My Take:
Norton’s role in A Complete Unknown was solid but forgettable. Yura Borisov’s performance in Anora is heartfelt, but a win is unlikely. I’m personally picking Jeremy Strong for his riveting portrayal of Roy Cohen in The Apprentice, a morally bankrupt character brought to life with magnetic energy. However, Kieran Culkin is the frontrunner for his outstanding work in A Real Pain. Culkin’s portrayal of a man who fluctuates between joy and despair is mesmerizing, and the Academy will likely reward him.
Best Supporting Actress
- Monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown
- Ariana Grande for Wicked
- Felicity Jones for The Brutalist
- Isabella Rossellini for Conclave
- Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez
My Pick and Who Will Win: Zoe Saldana
My Take:
Though Emilia Perez received mixed reviews, Saldana’s performance in the film is undeniable. Her expressive singing and strong presence make her the clear favorite in this category. Ariana Grande’s performance as Glinda in Wicked is also noteworthy, and while Jones and Rossellini offer solid performances, Saldana’s work stands out.
Best Editing
- Sean Baker for Anora
- Nick Emerson for Conclave
- David Jancso for The Brutalist
- Myron Kerstein for Wicked
- Juliette Welfling for Emilia Perez
My Pick and Will Win: Sean Baker
My Take:
While Wicked’s editing wasn’t perfect, the nomination is still deserved. Jancso’s work on The Brutalist was impressive, but Baker’s editing in Anora is a revelation. The film’s quick cuts and rhythmic style create an electric pace that’s hard to match. Nick Emerson’s work on Conclave is solid, but I believe Baker’s work will clinch this one.
Best Visual Effects
- Eric Barbara, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin, and Shane Mahan for Alien: Romulus
- Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft, and Peter Stubbs for Better Man
- Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer for Dune: Part 2
- Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story, and Rodney Burke for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
- Pablo Helman Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, and Paul Corbould for Wicked
My Pick and Will Win: Dune: Part 2
My Take:
If nothing else, Dune: Part 2 will win in this category. The visual effects are mind-blowing, and it’s hard to imagine any other film surpassing the work done here.
Best Costume Design
- Arianne Phillips for A Complete Unknown
- Lisy Christl for Conclave
- Janty Yates and David Crossman for Gladiator 2
- Linda Muir for Nosferatu
- Paul Tazewell for Wicked
My Pick and Who Will Win: Paul Tazewell for Wicked
My Take:
Every nominee in this category is deserving, but Wicked’s stunning costumes are hard to top. From the elaborate outfits to the fantastical details, Tazewell’s work here is exceptional and a likely winner.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mike Marino, David Presto, and Crystal Jurado for A Different Man
Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier, Jean Christophe Spadaccini for Emilia Perez
David White, Traci Loader, Suzanne Stokes-Munton for Nosferatu
Pierre-Olivier, Stephanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli for The Substance
Frances Hannon, Laura Blount, and Sarah Nuth for Wicked
My Pick: The Substance
Will Win: Wicked
My Take:
If the Academy is aiming for something modern and fresh, The Substance should win. The makeup work in that film amplified the grotesque and horrifying elements perfectly. However, since Wicked is a fantastical fairy tale brought to life, I think the Academy will favor it for its polished, storybook magic.
Best Visual Effects
Eric Barbara, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin, and Shane Mahan for Alien: Romulus
Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft, and Peter Stubbs for Better Man
Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer for Dune: Part 2
Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story, and Rodney Burke for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, and Paul Corbould for Wicked
My Pick and Will Win: Dune: Part 2
My Take:
Dune: Part 2 is one of those films that deserves recognition for its incredible world-building, and the visual effects played a huge part in making the world of Arrakis feel so tangible. The effects in this film were integral to its success, and the Academy will most likely honor that achievement.
Best Sound
Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Chaplan, Paul Massey, and David Giammarco for A Complete Unknown
Gareth John, Richard King, Rob Bartlett, and Doug Hemphill for Dune: Part 2
Erwan Kerznat, Aymeric Devoldere, Maxence Dussere, Cyril Holtz, and Niels Barletta for Emilia Perez
Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson, and John Marquis for Wicked
Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizo, and Left Lefferts for The Wild Robot
My Pick and Will Win: Dune: Part 2
My Take:
If you experienced Dune: Part 2 in an IMAX theater, or even at home with a good sound system, you’ll understand why this one is a no-brainer. The sound design, especially with the iconic Sandworms, elevates the entire film. It’s a sensory experience like no other.
Best Production Design
Judy Becker and Patricia Cuccia for The Brutalist
Suzie Davies and Cynthia Sleiter for Conclave
Patricia Vermette and Shane Vieau for Dune: Part 2
Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brentnerova for Nosferatu
Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales for Wicked
My Pick: The Brutalist
Will Win: Wicked
My Take:
Conclave did a fantastic job recreating the Vatican’s inner walls, adding to the film’s immersive experience. Similarly, Dune: Part 2 captured the planet of Arrakis beautifully. But this category feels like a David vs. Goliath matchup between Wicked and The Brutalist. Wicked brings the magical world of Oz to life with stunning set designs that are both grand and colorful. Director John Chu truly knows how to make the fantastical feel alive. On the other hand, The Brutalist pulled off something extraordinary on a smaller budget. Despite the limitations, the production design felt authentic and immersive. That’s why it’s my pick.
Best Original Score
Daniel Blumberg for The Brutalist
Volker Bertelmann for Conclave
Clement Ducol and Camille for Emilia Perez
John Powell and Stephen Schwartz for Wicked
Kris Powers for The Wild Robot
My Pick and Will Win: Daniel Blumberg for The Brutalist
My Take:
While the score for Wicked is a beautiful expansion of its original music, The Brutalist stands out for its emotional depth. The music in The Brutalist immediately pulls you into the character’s journey, adding a layer of epicness to the film. The score in Wicked is strong, but it’s more of a continuation. The Brutalist’s score, on the other hand, elevates the entire experience in a unique way.
Brief Overview of the Others
Flow will most likely take home the Oscar for Best Animated Feature, as it’s sweeping other award shows as well. Inside Out 2 is good, but Flow is the one everyone is talking about.
For Best Performance in I’m Still Here, Fernanda Torres gives an unforgettable performance. If the Academy is on its game, this film should win over Emilia Perez (though I liked that one too!).
As for Best Song, Never Too Late by Elton John is a strong contender. Everyone loves a good Elton John tune, and this one could certainly win.
For Documentary Short Subject, Live Action Short, Documentary Feature, and Animated Short Film, I haven’t seen the nominees yet, so I can’t comment.
Cinephellas 